The Centaur Weekly | AI acceleration, geopolitical risks, and economic disruptions are converging at the same time. This newsletter, curated by Cenk Sidar, breaks down the major news, analyzes why it actually matters, and highlights the risks and opportunities shaping power, markets, and technology.
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Iran at a Critical Juncture
Iran entered a fourth consecutive night of nationwide protests on Sunday as demonstrations intensified and broadened in scope. Since the protests erupted on December 28, President Trump has warned Tehran against firing on demonstrators and has been briefed in recent days on potential military options should the crackdown turn bloody. Iran’s army announced Saturday that it would join efforts to suppress the unrest, marking a significant escalation. In a statement, the military said it would “firmly safeguard national interests, strategic infrastructure, and public property,” blaming Israel and what it described as terrorist groups for fomenting the protests and vowing to thwart “the enemy’s plots.”
The scale and persistence of the protests expose a deeper regime vulnerability than Tehran has faced in years. The initial restraint by security forces broke with past practice, reflecting caution after last year’s damaging confrontation with Israel and the United States and fears that heavy repression could fracture a fragile postwar accommodation with society.
That approach collapsed quickly. Temporary economic relief eased pressure on the poorest while shifting costs onto the middle class, turning economic anger into a nationwide political challenge. Tehran now treats domestic unrest and external threat as inseparable.
The transition question remains unresolved. Many credible opposition figures are jailed, while chants invoking the shah’s son signal symbolism rather than a viable alternative. Reza Pahlavi is unlikely to be more than a temporary figurehead. External overreach risks delegitimizing any change. The regime collapse is not certain, but the trajectory is accelerating, with timing likely measured in days rather than weeks.
Labor Market Masks a Shifting Employment Regime
The U.S. labor market ended 2025 with few signs of momentum or stress. December payroll growth was modest, and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.4%, reinforcing a pattern of low hiring and low firing. Employers continue to add workers selectively while avoiding broad layoffs, suggesting a wait-and-see posture rather than confidence in renewed expansion.
I already mentioned in an early analysis that the central risk for the U.S. economy in 2026 is not inflation, which dominated last year’s cycle, but unemployment. Hiring decisions are increasingly shaped by uncertainty rather than demand weakness alone. Companies are not freezing headcount outright, but approvals are slower, thresholds are higher, and long-term workforce planning has become more tentative.
Artificial intelligence is a key, underappreciated variable. While a direct causal link between AI adoption/automation and unemployment remains unproven, its indirect impact on hiring behavior is already visible. The pace of AI capability gains has outstripped management’s ability to define what work still requires human labor. That uncertainty is enough to delay hiring, particularly for entry-level and generalist roles that once served as pipelines for future talent.
Firms continue to recruit for positions tied clearly to revenue or core execution, such as engineering and sales. But roles that look modular, repetitive, or potentially automatable face higher scrutiny. The result is a labor market that appears stable on the surface but is quietly becoming less dynamic. If growth slows even modestly, this fragility could translate into a sharper rise in unemployment than headline indicators currently suggest.
Despite elevated uncertainty around growth, policy, and technology, the U.S. remains the world’s most dynamic economy. Entrepreneurial activity continues to expand, with new business applications at record levels, underscoring a resilience that persists even as hiring, investment, and planning decisions become more cautious 👇
AI isn’t just helping solo founders work faster. It’s redefining what one person can actually do. In 2019, a solo founder might have spent weeks getting a basic prototype off the ground. Today, with AI in the loop, that same founder can ship in hours or days. The shift isn’t just speed. It’s scope. One person can now write code, shape marketing messaging, design the interface, analyze user behavior, and automate customer support all at once. The shift is evident in the data below 👇
🎙️ ALL-IN Podcast: 2026 Predictions
A candid forward look from operators who sit close to the capital, White House, and compute. The value is less in the point forecasts than in the shared assumption: AI acceleration compresses timelines across labor, media, and geopolitics, leaving little room for institutional laggards.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yEb2DX0TzKM&t=3210s
🧠 Marc Andreessen: 2026 Outlook
Andreessen frames the next two years as a consolidation phase rather than a breakthrough cycle. Power accrues to those who control platforms, distribution, and narrative, not marginal model improvements. A useful counterweight to linear AI optimism.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xRh2sVcNXQ8&t=21s
✍️ Negin Sarafi: “Beginnings and Endings”
A personal but disciplined meditation on regime change, exile, and historical cycles. Sarafi writes with an operator’s eye for how private lives intersect with state failure. Quietly political without being polemical.
https://neginsairafi.substack.com/p/beginnings-and-endings
🌍 Vali Nasr on Iran: Why This Time Is Different
Nasr, the leading voice on Iran, argues the Islamic Republic faces a simultaneous internal legitimacy crisis and external military pressure, a combination it has not previously survived. The piece is notable for its emphasis on constraints rather than intentions.
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/iran-this-time-is-different-deadly-combination-internal-and-external-threats-by-vali-nasr-2026-01
⏰ WSJ: What Time Should You Wake Up? Probably Not 5 a.m.
A corrective to productivity folklore. The reporting aligns sleep science with performance data, undermining the signaling value of early rising in knowledge work. A small but telling example of evidence beating narrative.
https://www.wsj.com/health/wellness/sleep-productivity-wake-up-time-0dd6a621