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The Centaur Weekly | AI acceleration, geopolitical risks, and economic disruptions are converging at the same time. This newsletter, curated by Cenk Sidar, breaks down the major news, analyzes why it actually matters, and highlights the risks and opportunities shaping power, markets, and technology.
Three Early Indicators of US Political Instability Heading Into 2028
Three developments this week heightened concerns about a potential constitutional crisis in the United States in the months and years ahead. On November 28, President Trump said he terminated all executive orders and clemency decisions signed by President Biden using an autopen, arguing the actions were not properly authorized. Following a fatal attack near the White House involving an Afghan national, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Trump had requested the deployment of an additional 500 National Guard troops to Washington, D.C. Trump also posted an AI-generated image on Truth Social showing himself holding a sign reading “TRUMP 2028, YES!”, prompting renewed speculation about whether he may seek an unconstitutional third presidential term.
One of the most persistent mistakes in defending democracy is the tendency to dismiss authoritarian political leaders as incompetent or unserious. History repeatedly shows the opposite: strongmen often operate with a clear sense of purpose, even if their rhetoric suggests chaos The pattern is familiar to anyone who has studied or witnessed the growth of illiberal movements over the past two decades: incremental tests of constitutional limits, expanded use of security forces, efforts to delegitimize opposition, and the steady construction of parallel political loyalties. The reason is clear: authoritarian systems rarely allow their protagonists the luxury of a quiet retirement. Leaders who erode institutional norms often fear what accountability might bring once they leave office, whether legal, political, or personal. So, they can’t afford to be retired. That fear breeds a powerful incentive to cling to power. This is why Steve Bannon’s statement that Donald Trump intends to remain in power should be taken very seriously. It is highly probable that Trump will attempt to maintain his hold on power, potentially at the cost of democratic principles and national stability. However, the United States is not destined to repeat the experiences of other countries, but ignoring these structural dynamics would be a profound mistake. Liberal democracies do not falter in a single dramatic moment; they erode when citizens and institutions choose to look away from the warning signs already in plain sight.
What’s Really Behind Trump’s Escalation Toward Venezuela?
President Trump announced on Saturday that Venezuelan airspace was “closed,” offering no additional clarification on the scope or legal basis of the move. The declaration immediately heightened diplomatic tensions between Washington and Caracas, which have been steadily rising amid months of U.S. military deployments in the southern Caribbean. Since early September, the Trump administration has positioned a significant naval presence near Venezuela, initially justified as part of an expanded maritime security campaign targeting alleged narcotics trafficking routes. The administration has conducted multiple strikes against small vessels it claims were involved in drug smuggling, but it has yet to provide public evidence substantiating those allegations. Local reports and human rights monitors say dozens of people have been killed in these operations, though the exact number remains disputed. The Venezuelan government has condemned the actions as illegal incursions into regional waters, while U.S. officials insist they are part of a broader effort to “restore order” and disrupt transnational criminal networks.
U.S.–Venezuela relations have been strained for decades, but the latest escalation under President Trump marks a shift from long-standing strategic hostility to a more overt form of coercive pressure. The administration’s decision to target small vessels in the Caribbean described as operations against “drug smugglers” adds a layer of legal ambiguity with significant geopolitical implications. By blurring the line between criminal activity and terrorism, the United States effectively elevates these encounters into the realm of armed conflict, bypassing due process and raising difficult questions under international law. The main problem is that the intelligence does not align with the policy. The narcotics driving America’s overdose crisis particularly fentanyl arrive largely from Mexico and China, not Venezuelan waters. Washington is deploying the wrong tools against the wrong actors for the wrong crisis.
So why focus on Venezuela? In my opinon, the strategic logic is straightforward. The country holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves and significant deposits of gold and rare earth minerals assets that carry heightened importance in a future shaped by energy transition and supply-chain competition. Trump’s pressure campaign reflects a broader pattern of transactional geopolitics: apply maximum force, generate confusion and instability, and hope the opposing side concedes. It is imperative to communicate to him that the situation at hand transcends mere construction negotiations and delves into the realm of highly intricate geopolitics. While the objective might be to undermine Nicolás Maduro or to secure concessions, the current strategy could exacerbate an already tense relationship, propelling it into a more unstable phase. When major powers integrate military capabilities with ambiguous legal frameworks to gain leverage over resources, the results are seldom predictable and are almost invariably fraught with significant risks.
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Why Women’s Sports Are the Next Growth Engine?
Global interest in women’s sports is growing rapidly, supported by rising attendance, higher broadcast viewership and increased investment. WNBA attendance rose 48% in 2024 to 2.35 million, the league’s highest level in more than 20 years. More than 54 million unique viewers watched broadcasts during the season, with 22 games drawing more than 1 million viewers. Early 2025 data shows continued momentum, with nationally televised games averaging 794,000 viewers, up 21% from the previous year. Market valuations have expanded alongside audience growth. Global revenue for elite women’s sports is forecast to rise from $1.88 billion in 2024 to $2.35 billion in 2025, according to industry projections. Venture investor Kara Nortman launched Monarch Collective, a $250 million fund dedicated to women’s sports, after valuing the market at about $500 million in 2023. Industry estimates now place the sector closer to $3 billion.
Women’s sports aren’t just “having a moment”, they’re being repriced. As AI automates more white-collar work, attention and capital are shifting toward what machines can’t replicate: scarcity, community, and live, unscripted competition. Younger fans aren’t inheriting old biases; they discover athletes through algorithms rather than gatekeepers, creating demand that’s rising far faster than supply. Value is moving quickly, and the fundamentals are changing with it. And the key point: this isn’t charity. Men’s sports make up a $500 billion global market. Women’s sports still have massive room to grow, and early investors are already seeing returns. It’s the most underpriced asset class in the industry, a rare combination of cultural momentum, low entry costs, and significant long-term upside.
Just over half of U.S. adults now say they drink alcohol (54%), the lowest Gallup has recorded since first measuring alcohol use in 1939. This percentage is down from 62% in 2023 and 58% in 2024 and is one of only a handful of times in the trend that less than 60% have reported they drink alcohol.
@steven Scott Galloway reveals why the young generation younger generation needs to drink more 😮 #Diaryofaceo #podcast #clips #podcastclips #vira... See more
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