In partnership with
The Centaur Weekly | AI acceleration, geopolitical risks, and economic disruptions are converging at the same time. This newsletter, curated by Cenk Sidar, breaks down the major news, analyzes why it actually matters, and highlights the risks and opportunities shaping power, markets, and technology.Could Copper Be the Next Bull Market?
Copper has been the standout metal of this cycle, outperforming even gold and silver. Prices are up more than 40% in 2025, hitting record highs above $6.20/lb on Comex and $13,000/ton on the LME. This isn’t a sentiment-driven rally. Copper is moving on real demand: power grids, construction, industrial equipment, and especially AI-linked infrastructure. Data center buildouts, energy security spending, and grid upgrades are all pushing demand forward at the same time; supply is tight. Policy and geopolitics have added fuel. Disruptions in Chile and Indonesia have tightened supply, while U.S. tariffs and the threat of broader trade restrictions have triggered a rush to build U.S. copper stockpiles. U.S. inventories are now at levels not seen in decades, draining availability elsewhere and pushing global prices higher.
Copper’s rally isn’t about inflation hedging. It’s about build. While gold prices fear and equities debate narratives, copper tracks where capital is actually going: power grids, AI data centers, defense systems, EV supply chains, and electrification. These are capital-intensive, politically protected investments. They don’t get cancelled because sentiment shifts. On the demand side, this is structural. EVs use three to four times more copper than internal combustion vehicles. Renewable energy and transmission grids are materially more copper-intensive than fossil systems. Grid upgrades across the US, Europe, and emerging markets aren’t discretionary; they’re overdue. Layer in AI and cloud infrastructure, which are power-hungry and copper-heavy by design, and copper intensity per unit of GDP is rising.
This is driven by physical build-out, not the business cycle. Supply can’t keep up. Ore grades are falling. New mines take a decade or more to come online. ESG constraints, water scarcity, and politics are tightening the supply curve further. Policy has exaggerated the move. US tariffs and trade threats have pulled copper into domestic stockpiles, distorting prices and creating the appearance of permanent scarcity. That distortion can unwind. The underlying signal won’t. Copper is telling you where industrial policy, capital spending, and geopolitics are aligning. I believe this is not a short-term trade.
Prediction Markets Drift Toward the Gambling–Finance Frontier
Prediction markets are expanding rapidly, with estimates of the total addressable market ranging from a near-term niche of $5–10bn in volumes to a much larger long-term opportunity if they capture even a sliver of global betting and derivatives activity. Sports betting alone exceeds $200bn in annual handle globally, and platforms see political, economic, and event-driven contracts as adjacent demand rather than a separate category. Growth has been strongest around U.S. elections and major geopolitical events, when participation spikes and liquidity briefly rivals that of mid-tier sportsbooks. The risks are structural. Regulatory exposure remains the primary constraint, particularly in the U.S., where the line between regulated derivatives, event contracts, and gambling is contested. There is also competitive tension with established sports betting operators, who possess deeper liquidity, marketing reach, and regulatory muscle, and could easily replicate event-style contracts if permitted. Finally, reputational risk persists: prediction markets are vulnerable to accusations of market manipulation or moral hazard when tied to sensitive outcomes.
Prediction markets sell themselves as “collective intelligence.” In reality, most of them are drifting toward gambling with a sexy label.
In a small number of contracts, with real money and serious participants, you can get a decent signal. But once these platforms scale, that breaks. Liquidity stops reflecting knowledge and starts reflecting impulse.
Volume starts coming from people playing for fun, not people trading on real information. Prices move with memes, momentum, and crowd emotion. It becomes less “wisdom of crowds” and more “money-fueled groupthink.”
The bigger problem is perception. Once a number is on a screen, people treat it like truth. Even when the market is basically a popularity contest with leverage.
The uncomfortable takeaway is simple: prediction markets don’t scale cleanly. If they stay small, they’re niche but sometimes useful. If they go mainstream, they become engagement-driven gambling products, not forecasting tools.
Start using AI the way top finance teams do.
The AI for Business & Finance Certificate Program from Columbia Business School Exec Ed and Wall Street Prep draws on real-world examples inspired by how firms like BlackRock, Citi, and Morgan Stanley approach AI enablement for their teams.
You’ll go beyond theory to understand what’s being implemented, why it works, and how to apply it in your own role.
Join LIVE office hours with Columbia Business School faculty
Earn a certificate from a top business school
Get lifetime access to program materials, meet-ups, and networking opportunities
Save $300 with code SAVE300 + $200 with early enrollment by Feb. 17.
Public markets dominate headlines, but they no longer dominate the real economy. While investor attention is fixated on the S&P 500, these companies account for only a narrow slice of U.S. economic activity. S&P 500 firms employ just 18% of the U.S. workforce and represent only 21% of total capital expenditure. Even among large businesses, the shift is clear: 81% of firms with over $100 million in revenue are privately held, and privately owned companies account for nearly 80% of job openings.
The same pattern shows up in balance sheets and profits. Less than half of total corporate debt outstanding comes from S&P 500 companies, and while they generate roughly half of total corporate profits, the rest of the economy operates largely outside public markets. In short, public equities may anchor portfolios and media narratives, but they increasingly reflect only a fraction of where economic activity, employment, and growth are actually happening.
🎰 “Everything is gambling now”: How betting is taking over America
A sharp look at how legalized betting has migrated from sports into politics, media, and retail trading, reframing risk-taking as mainstream entertainment rather than marginal vice. The deeper question is whether price discovery is being replaced by spectacle.
https://www.axios.com/2026/02/08/polymarket-kalshi-draftkings-fanduel-betting
💻 Greg Brockman on the transformation of software development
Brockman lays out how AI-native tooling is collapsing the boundaries between planning, coding, and deployment, shifting leverage from large teams to small, highly augmented ones. Read as a signal on where software power is concentrating.
🌍Architecture of Power and the Dollar’s Future — Niall Ferguson
Ferguson frames dollar dominance as a function of geopolitical power rather than accounting mechanics, arguing currencies fail politically before they fail financially. A useful corrective to casual de-dollarization takes.
📉₿ Cathie Wood on Bitcoin volatility and “SaaSpocalypse” fears
Wood defends volatility as the price of convexity across crypto and software, casting SaaS stress as cyclical rather than terminal. More revealing as an insight into conviction investing than as a market forecast.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DqAstqD7Pzc