The Centaur Weekly | AI acceleration, geopolitical instability, and market turbulence — decoded for decision-makers. Curated by Cenk Sidar, Founder and CEO of Enquire.AI
💸Market volatility increases as AI valuation concerns after the Nvidia earnings
Last week, the market experienced a downward trend despite a slight uptick in stock indexes on Friday. By the end of the week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite remained 4% and 7% below their late October peaks. The market's volatility was driven by concerns over the potential "AI bubble" risk. Even with NVIDIA's impressive earnings, questions arose regarding their reporting methods and the inherent risks in their interconnected relationships within the industry. Michael Burry, famous from "The Big Short," criticized NVIDIA’s Q3 results, saying they hid the real costs of stock-based pay and warned that the AI sector built around NVIDIA`s circular economic ecosystem might be a bubble. Analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera also wrote on Substack, calling NVIDIA's financial model fraudulent.
Nvidia is a legitimate enterprise characterized by tangible products, robust demand, sound economic foundations, and an expanding cash reserve. In contrast to the internet bubble of the late 1990s, the current beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence (AI) wave are generating substantial and genuine revenue across various sectors. It is important to note that in 1999, numerous dot-com companies lacked revenue, users, infrastructure, and viable products. In stark contrast, Nvidia is generating over $50 billion each quarter and maintains cash reserves of $60 billion+. Major cloud service providers are experiencing unprecedented growth in AI infrastructure, and enterprise AI expenditure is increasing, supported by clear contractual agreements. Companies developing AI applications for diverse sectors are also achieving significant annual recurring revenue. This phenomenon does not represent a speculative bubble, but rather an emerging industry. Nonetheless, short-term valuation adjustments may occur for companies within the ecosystem.
📈Futures may be flashing green for the new week this morning but make no mistake—the volatility regime is still firmly in place. Last week’s surge in the VIX wasn’t a one-off blip — it was a signal of what’s ahead. The VIX isn’t just spiking — it’s staying elevated. The futures curve has flattened out, which tells me investors expect persistent turbulence, not a quick mean reversion.
Intraday swings have been some of the sharpest since pre-pandemic trade shocks, and risk premia are rising across asset classes. Volatility won’t retreat quickly because the underlying drivers — rate uncertainty, AI valuation concentration, and macro fragility — are structural, not temporary. ⚠️It is clear to me that markets are entering a phase where sharp swings become the norm rather than the exception. Tighten your seatbelts!
🕊️The Ukraine Peace Plan Taking Shape — and Why It Favors Moscow
President Trump has been pressing Ukraine to accept his 28-point peace proposal — a framework widely viewed as tilted toward Russian interests and one that has triggered alarm across European capitals. Zelensky has publicly rejected the initial terms as unacceptable, setting up a direct clash with Washington’s new posture. Adding pressure, President Trump criticized Ukraine’s leadership for what he called a lack of gratitude, even as senior U.S. officials met with a Ukrainian delegation to push forward negotiations aimed at ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Trump has set a Thursday deadline for Kyiv to respond, though he emphasized that the offer is not “final” and could evolve as U.S. and Ukrainian diplomats continue discussions in Geneva.
The newly proposed 28-point "peace plan" for Ukraine, introduced by Trump, appears less a negotiation and more a capitulation. The plan's stipulations closely resemble Russia's initial demands from 2022, effectively requiring Ukraine to relinquish significant territory, reduce its military capabilities, abandon aspirations for NATO membership, conduct impractical snap elections, and even adopt language aligned with Kremlin propaganda.
In exchange, Russia would benefit from the lifting of sanctions, recognition of territorial claims, reintegration into the global economy, and amnesty for war crimes. The development of this plan is particularly concerning, as it involved clandestine discussions with a sanctioned Russian official, excluding senior U.S. officials. Even Republican leaders have publicly criticized the plan as excessively pro-Kremlin.
Zelensky is essentially presented with two options: surrender Ukraine's sovereignty or forfeit U.S. support. European nations perceive this as a potential collapse of longstanding American security assurances. In my opinion, the plan effectively grants President Putin a victory unattainable through military means and signals to authoritarian regimes that aggression is rewarded.
$57 Billion in NVDA Revenue, 62% YoY Growth. And stocks still fell… What now?
Nvidia just posted a record-breaking quarter… yet the markets dropped. Why?
Experts say that even the top AI earnings couldn’t calm the fear of a potential bubble.
After soaring at the open, the S&P reversed sharply, wiping out over $2T of value in hours.
The “Great Bitcoin Crash of 2025” only wiped out ~$1T by comparison.
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🎰Prediction Market Kalshi’s Valuation Jumps to $11B After Reported $1B Raise
U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi has reportedly pushed its valuation to roughly $11 billion after raising $1 billion in a yet undisclosed funding round, according to an initial report from TechCrunch. That's more than double its $5 billion valuation from just eight weeks ago when it raised $300 million.
Prediction markets are exploding. Robinhood’s integration of Kalshi in March set it off, and event-contract volume on the platform has already doubled to $2.3 billion. Kalshi and Polymarket hit record highs this month, Trump Media is preparing a crypto-based prediction platform, and Google will now surface prediction-market data directly in search results. But the acceleration comes with real risks. Much of this is essentially gambling rebranded as forecasting, expanding at the exact moment economic insecurity and AI-driven job disruption are rising. We’re already seeing integrity issues, including fresh betting scandals in the NBA and Turkish Super League. If this continues unchecked, prediction markets could harm sports, fuel youngsters` addiction, and blur the line between probabilistic insight and mass speculation.
⚠️ A Generation on Edge: Why Gen Z Is Ready to Erupt
Over the past year, Generation Z activists—those born from the late 1990s through the early 2000s—have taken to the streets across multiple regions, including Madagascar, Mexico, Tanzania, Morocco, Nepal, and Peru. Their protests have focused on a familiar set of grievances: corruption scandals, police violence, shrinking economic opportunity, and widening inequality. In each case, Gen Z demonstrators have relied heavily on social media not only to mobilize and coordinate but also to broadcast their message globally, rapidly elevating local movements into international conversations. In mid-November, youth organizers in Mexico joined this wave, staging anti-government and anti–organized crime demonstrations after the assassination of a mayor who had publicly criticized criminal groups and the government’s security strategy.
Having experienced Gezi Protests in Turkey in 2013, I’ve seen how quickly a generation’s frustration—supercharged by digital networks and a collapsing social contract—can alter a country’s trajectory. Gen Z is the first generation raised amid overlapping global shocks: Gen AI, major epidemic, stagnant wages, democratic erosion, climate volatility, rising authoritarianism, and an information ecosystem dominated by unregulated social media platforms. Add persistent inflation, housing shortages, and geopolitical instability, and you get a generation that no longer believes the old rules apply—because they don’t. So, they’ve stopped waiting. And there’s every reason to expect more upheaval ahead. More to come for sure!
📹Alex Karp`s speaks with Axios on the future of Palantir.
📘 4X4 Podcast on wearable health device (Turkish)